Abstract

The Indigenous population suffers considerable disadvantage across a wide range of socio-economic indicators, and is therefore the focus of many policy initiatives attempting to ‘close the gap’ between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians. Unfortunately, past population estimates have proved unreliable as denominators for these indicators. The aim of the paper is to contribute more robust estimates for the Northern Territory Indigenous population for the period 1966-2011, and hence estimate one of the most important of socio-economic indicators, life expectancy at birth. A consistent time series of population estimates from 1966 to 2011, based off the more reliable 2011 official population estimates, was created by a mix of reverse and forward cohort survival. Adjustments were made to ensure sensible sex ratios and consistency with recent birth registrations. Standard life table methods were employed to estimate life expectancy. Drawing on an approach from probabilistic forecasting, confidence intervals surrounding population numbers and life expectancies were estimated. The Northern Territory Indigenous population in 1966 numbered between 23,800 and 26,100, compared to between 66,100 and 73,200 in 2011. In 1966-71 Indigenous life expectancy at birth was in the low 50s for both sexes, whilst by 2006-11 it had increased to the low 60s for males and high 60s for females – about 16 years lower than comparative figures for the Australian population as a whole. Over time, the gap with all-Australian life expectancy has not narrowed. Whilst considerable progress has been made in closing the gap in under-five mortality, at most other ages the mortality rate differential has increased. A huge public health challenge remains. Efforts need to be redoubled to reduce the large gap in life expectancy between Indigenous and non-Indigenous Australians.

Tom Wilson is Senior Research Fellow, Queensland Centre for Population Research, University of Queensland.